Cambridge United 2023/24: reasons to be cheerful?

Will our third successive season in the third tier end in triumph or disaster?

It’s doubtful that anyone has ever been truly happy to spend an afternoon in Barnet, but Saturday’s trip to North West London was particularly disheartening for the 238 Cambridge United fans who headed to The Hive in search of some pre-season cheer.

If you squint very hard you can just about see football happening in the distance.

Such cheer was in short supply in a low key friendly which the home side won 2-0 courtesy of two first half goals, both of which almost apologetically found their way into the net following corners from the Bees’ right. For the most part it felt like United were going through the motions, barely stringing two passes together and not managing a single shot on target.

The dangers of reading too much into pre-season results are well documented, but it was a disappointing way to close out the preparations for next Saturday’s League One curtain raiser against Oxford.

How will the U’s fare when the season proper gets underway? In my predicted table for the When Saturday Comes season preview (out this week), I put us down to finish 18th, which in theory should be slightly less traumatic than last year’s final day drama. Is this more in hope than expectation? Well, one big change we’ve made to the squad gives me cause for optimism, while another leaves me feeling somewhat anxious.

Are you experienced?

What is certain is that United’s team to face Oxford will be much changed from the one that beat MK Dons 1-0 this time last year. On that occasion we named an XI of players who had already been at the club for at least a year, with zero new signings in sight.

If we assume the first half team against Barnet is pretty much our strongest line-up, this time around we will have four new signings and three players who joined during last season.

This is a dramatic departure for Mark Bonner, a man who has put great store in continuity during his short managerial career so far. But he will be hoping what his players lack in familiarity they make up for in experience. Indeed, looking at the composition of the teams, the combined number of appearances at League One level or above has more than doubled since last year.

This has inevitably bumped the average age of the team up, from 26.1 this year to 27.3 this.

Previously I have always considered experience to be one of the most over-rated qualities in football, but a couple of factors make me think it will be valuable for us this year.

One is that experienced heads should offer greater consistency; over the last couple of years we’ve had a squad full of players who are capable of faring well at this level when at their best (the dearly departed Joe Ironside, for example, or Jubril Okedina) but whose levels have fluctuated wildly. With a more proven squad we should be guaranteed more 7/10 performances, and hopefully this will translate into more points. It’s probably notable that the two names still in the team from this time last year - Paul Digby and James Brophy - have been among of our most consistent players of the Bonner era.

The second is that young teams tend to get relegated from League One. Last season all four demoted sides had a younger average age than our squad. In 2021/22, three of the league’s five youngest squads went down, and the season before that three of the four relegated teams had an average age of 25 or younger. It’s a small sample size, but it does appear to show there’s some value in having higher division know-how in your squad when you’re trying to compete with teams with better players and much greater resources.

I love you (but you’re boring)

However, this experience does not solve the problem of where goals are going to come from. Last season was pretty boring for long periods, not least because we went through runs of games where we would barely create a chance, let alone score a goal. The U’s managed to find the net a meagre 41 times last year, the third lowest total in the division. What’s more, the source of 30 of those goals left over the summer.

How we will replace them, or indeed reach a more respectable total such as the 56 we managed in 2021/22, remains to be seen. Bonner’s teams have always been highly reliant on strikers for goals, but it seems a stretch to think that Gassan Ahadme (career goals: seven in 44 appearances) and Fejiri Okenabirhie (last league goal, April 2021) will be able to carry this burden alone. I don’t think a 30-goal season from Harrison Dunk is out of the question, but it’s a lot to ask of a left-back to be the team’s attacking focal point.

So, without wishing to be over-dramatic, I feel like the final signings we make between now and when the transfer window closes could make or break our season. Bonner said after the Ipswich game he was looking to bring in two or three additional forward players, with only one, Sullay Kaikai, having arrived so far.

Kaikai is a good addition, and based on his previous record should be capable of adding five-seven goals if he plays the full season, but the other two players will need to be capable of hitting the ground running too if we’re going to avoid another relegation scrap. No pressure, recruitment team.